A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
